Stocks continue upward grind

Stock grind higher

Stocks continue to grind ever higher pushing many indices to reach new peaks as global stocks play catch-up with the U.S. The S&P 500, for example, is now only around 5% from its year high – a remarkable recovery from the March 23rd low. The index is now 40% above its coronavirus collapse. Forward PE multiple has risen to a twenty year high of 22.40 making shares rather expensive – but this isn’t holding it back. Can this recovery continue? Will there be a shock to U.S. GDP in the second quarter? U.S.…

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UK exits EU

GB

At 11am (not 12am) on 31st January 2020 the UK will leave the EU After more than three years of indecision, procrastination and paralysis – the United Kingdom will finally cut away from the European Union. Deadline The withdrawal agreement will now come into effect, as the UK moves into the ‘transition’ period. It’s probably safe to say that we, the UK, should expect another year of EU verses UK arguments about the future trade relationship. After-all, we are not due to completely set sail until 31st December 2020. Stronger?…

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Boris emboldened by majority election win!

Boris Johnson Get Brexit Done

Brexit update: Johnson wins vote on his deal, requests MPs to move on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal cleared its first hurdle in Parliament on Friday, placing the UK on course to leave the European Union next month. MPs voted by 358 to 234 for it to proceed to its next stage Opening the Commons debate, the prime minister declared his legislation (deal) offers ‘no possibility’ of any further delay, with the transition period due to end on 31st December 2020. Brexit – Take 2 That sets the clock ticking again…

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UK GDP growth revised to 0.4%

UK GDP

UK GDP growth revised to 0.4% in third quarter of 2019 The ONS had earlier estimated that GDP grew 0.3% in the three months up to the end of September. It has now revised that figure to 0.4%. The Office for National Statistics said, ‘Quarterly GDP growth has been 0.3% on average this year, continuing the slowing that has been experienced over the previous five years. Compared with the same quarter last year ago, the UK economy increased by 1.1% – the joint weakest figure since mid 2012. This latest…

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Election or referendum by proxy. Will December election break Brexit deadlock?

Election

Finally the UK parliament makes a positive move to back Boris Johnson’s call for a December election. Will it deliver an opportunity to break the Brexit deadlock or will it deliver yet more uncertainty? Referendum by proxy? My worry is that the UK public will see this as a second referendum. But at least the voter will be better informed this time round – won’t they? ‘Flextension’ On Monday, the EU agreed to postpone Brexit day until 31st January 2020 to give the UK PM time to persuade members of…

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Brexit latest – More indecision!

UK & EU flags

Brexit latest update – more indecision EU defer extension decision 25th October 2019 EU defer decision on extension length as UK PM Boris Johnson puts forward plan for December election. European Union members agreed in principle a Brexit delay – but deferred a decision on the length of the extension until after Parliament votes on Monday 28th on Boris Johnson’s proposal for an early general election in December. Johnson has indicated for the election to take place on 12th December. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid conceded the UK will…

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Deal time? U.S. – China trade talks & a Brexit breakthrough likely? 11th October 2019

Stock markets up

Deal breakthrough? If the markets are anything to go by and with investor sentiment so high today – a U.S. – China trade deal breakthrough has to be more likely now than ever? Positive news is in abundance right now and the markets are lapping it up. Brexit deal and a U.S. China trade deal soon? UK PM Boris Johnson and Ireland PM Leo Varadkar – after constructive talks Thursday, released a joint communication agreeing they could see a potential ‘pathway’ ahead to a Brexit deal. There is at least…

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Markets update October 8th 2019

Stocks fall

Markets update Summary Asia stocks edged higher. Japan’s Nikkei closed up at: 21588. But pressure on U.S. markets as futures show Dow to open down by some 200 points. Brexit Report released today suggests a Brexit ‘no-deal’ could see UK government borrowing hit a 50 year high to as much as 90% of national income or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As a figure that could be as much as £100 billion! So, after all those years of austerity the UK still may not have ‘balance’ the books, and that’s worrying.…

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Trump impeachment? China U.S. trade dispute latest, UK parliament suspension and other market moving news this week

Impeachment

Trump impeachment proceedings launched by the democrats Market moving news in brief On 25th September 2019 – reports stated that Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives announced that the U.S. Democratic Party had begun a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump – reportedly over allegations that he pressured a foreign power to ‘investigate’ a political rival and therefore influence the U.S. 2020 election. It is expected that even with strong support from the Democrats, who are in favour of impeachment, it is highly unlikely to pass…

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U.S – China trade war – Trump, tariffs and trade

Trade war

What a difference a day makes – or a even a few weeks… Just a few week’s ago, President Trump was ramping up additional tariffs after China retaliated with a return salvo as new tariffs came in to force from both sides on 1st September 2019.  Markets fell back after reacting badly to Trumps tweets and tariff increases. The Dow fell over 600 point plus in one day. Concessions and the tariff turn-a-round Confirmation soon came that high level trade talks were to resume in Washington in October as China…

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