IMF forecasts global recession from increased Covid-19 threat

International Monetary Fund

The IMF forecast cast more doubt on the speed of global economic recovery as Covid-19 cases surge in the U.S. and in the America’s. Doubts over U.S. re-opening resurface and investors start to fret again as stocks lose momentum. Outlook downgraded The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the world economy, projecting a significantly deeper recession and slower recovery than it anticipated just two months ago. The Fund downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021. The IMF cautioned that the forecasts are ‘surrounded with unprecedented uncertainty‘. The U.S. is expected…

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UK GDP crash, economy suffers 20% contraction in April

UK GDP

Shocking but no surprise! The UK economy shrank by a record 20.4% in April 2020 due to the damaging affects of lockdown. The monthly decline was outlined in figures reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The GDP fall is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, and is the biggest GDP fall ever recorded in the UK. The ONS also published figures for the three months February to April, which showed a decline of 10.4%. Almost all areas of the…

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Stocks are up, so all is okay…?

Popping the balloon

So, stocks are up and that means all is okay – no I don’t think so. These big stock market bets on economies re-opening quickly and going back to ‘normal’ are likely lulling us in to a false sense of security. We want it to be good again, of course we do. But let’s fix things properly before we go forward. Betting is not a good solution. As the Dow reclaims 27000 and goes even higher and as many world indices climb back close to or above their pre-coronavirus levels,…

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Markets upward trend continues, for now?

Stocks and Shares

Good news UK and U.S. markets were closed Monday 25th June 2020 – but that didn’t stop European markets roaring ahead yesterday. There are a number of positives for markets to be happy about right now. England is to re-open non-essential shops by mid June. European countries are easing their lockdown measures. Spain is looking to resurrect their holiday season this summer by ending quarantine of arrivals by 1st July. Germany’s Ifo business survey indicated ‘things’ are likely better than thought, and this despite entering recession. The death rate in…

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The shape of things to come

Future recovery

Bounce, Recession or Depression? As economists, traders, investors, politicians and media pundits talk of economic recovery, many countries have already entered recession. The latest being Japan, the third largest economy in the world. The UK, Germany, France and Italy have all entered technical recessions. ‘V’ or not to ‘V’ ? The very same ‘analysts’ also spoke of recovery not of recession. The chatter was about the type of recovery even. Whether economies would see a, ‘V’ shaped (a fast bounce bank to normal), a ‘U’ shape, an ‘L’ and a…

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Federal Reserve to announce rate decision Wednesday 30th October

Federal Reserve

Another rate cut likely – and then what…? How likely is it that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the third time in a row as US stock markets touch all time records? The general consensus among market analysts and pundits alike appear to suggest a cut is widely expected. Indeed, the percentage probability hit around 90% in favour of a 0.25% interest rate cut last week. However, with the U.S. markets in ‘full steam ahead’ mode and the S&P 500 touching a new all time high –…

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Should we be concerned by markets at the moment? Take a look at the U.S. stock market for instance

Dow record high

Opinion Are alarm bells ringing or is it just the usual general cyclical market noise? The overall concern to many investors and analysts at the moment is that the global economy has shifted from synchronised growth to one in which expansion is now decreasing. Many of the major countries around the world have slowing economies and possibly face recession – even if at a technical level. Central banks, interest rate policy and inflation Interest rates are historically low in the United States and for many major world economies? If you…

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Stock market moving events and news 3rd October 2019

Stock markets

Stock market events scheduled for today likely to move markets China and Germany stock markets closed today. Japan – foreign investment data Australia – balance of trade data Germany – PMI data due UK – PMI service data due EU – retail sales data due U.S. – employment data due – jobless claims U.S. – services & non-manufacturing PMI & factory orders data due Other market moving news today, October 3rd 2019 Asia stocks fall – Japan’s Nikkei drops by around 2% to close at: 21342. Ted Baker shares fall…

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U.S – China trade war – Trump, tariffs and trade

Trade war

What a difference a day makes – or a even a few weeks… Just a few week’s ago, President Trump was ramping up additional tariffs after China retaliated with a return salvo as new tariffs came in to force from both sides on 1st September 2019.  Markets fell back after reacting badly to Trumps tweets and tariff increases. The Dow fell over 600 point plus in one day. Concessions and the tariff turn-a-round Confirmation soon came that high level trade talks were to resume in Washington in October as China…

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Daily roundup market moving news, 15th August 2019, slowdown or recession?

Stocks and shares

Market moving news daily roundup – events & news likely to move markets 15th August 2019 Company performance, economic and political events but especially market sentiment will always influence market movement, good or bad. Summary Market moving news roundup, 15th August 2019 Bond yields Yesterday investors took fright at the inversion of bond yields, an indicator of a potential recession. However, over night the Hang Seng remained flat and the Nikkei index recovered earlier loses to close down around 1.2% – compared to the DJIA 800 point drop of around…

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