U.S. economy above pre-pandemic level as latest GDP shows 6.5% growth


The U.S. economy grew thanks mainly to consumer spending but it was well below the expected growth level of 8.4% The U.S. economy is now bigger than before the pandemic hit – so why is the Fed still leaving ultra accommodative policies in place? After all – the economy, according to this data set is now fixed, isn’t it? Growth The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the spring and repaired most of the damage caused by the pandemic thanks to widespread coronavirus vaccinations and a nearly full reopening of the…

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China’s GDP reportedly grew 7.9% in the second quarter

China GDP

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) reportedly increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday. Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago. Industrial production grew by 8.3%. Sustained recovery China’s economy sustained a steady recovery – the statistics bureau reportedly said. But the bureau added there were still concerns about the global spread of the pandemic and ‘unbalanced’ recovery domestically. But… On the face of it these numbers are pretty impressive – they usually are. But in other…

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OECD economic recovery looks promising


Prospects brighter for global economic recovery The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) said the world economy is likely to expand by 5.6% in 2021. The figure for the UK is 5.1% followed by 4.7% next year. This significantly brighter outlook reflects the deployment of effective vaccines. Stimulus aid There was also an effect from economic stimulus measures in the U.S., in particular the $1.9 trillion package President Biden will introduce. The report does however suggest a risk of lasting costs from the pandemic in some countries, and that…

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IMF forecasts global recession from increased Covid-19 threat

International Monetary Fund

The IMF forecast cast more doubt on the speed of global economic recovery as Covid-19 cases surge in the U.S. and in the America’s. Doubts over U.S. re-opening resurface and investors start to fret again as stocks lose momentum. Outlook downgraded The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the world economy, projecting a significantly deeper recession and slower recovery than it anticipated just two months ago. The Fund downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021. The IMF cautioned that the forecasts are ‘surrounded with unprecedented uncertainty‘. The U.S. is expected…

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UK debt now exceeds 100% of GDP


UK borrowing surges to pay for Covid-19 impact The UK’s debt is now worth more than its economy after the government borrowed a record amount in May 2020. The £55.2 billion was nine times higher than in May 2019 and the highest since records began. The borrowing sent government debt to £1.95 trillion, exceeding the size of the economy for the first time in more than 50 years. The borrowing was necessary as the UK government battled against the affects of the pandemic and as an extensive array of spending…

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UK GDP crash, economy suffers 20% contraction in April


Shocking but no surprise! The UK economy shrank by a record 20.4% in April 2020 due to the damaging affects of lockdown. The monthly decline was outlined in figures reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The GDP fall is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, and is the biggest GDP fall ever recorded in the UK. The ONS also published figures for the three months February to April, which showed a decline of 10.4%. Almost all areas of the…

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U.S. GDP at -5% in first quarter


The U.S. economy slowed more than expected with the GDP reading for the first quarter coming in at -5%. Analysts have suggested that the second quarter GDP could be down by as much as 40% 1 in 4 Americans have lost their jobs Data yesterday, 28th May 2020, showed U.S. job losses increased again with nearly 41 million workers now unemployed. If it is possible for there to be a faint glimmer of hope at this time – the data does suggest that the trend is slowing. The weekly count…

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Stocks continue surge despite economic concerns

Stock Market

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up further again today. China reportedly rejected a U.S. proposal for the Security Council to meet over the issue, whilst U.S. secretary of state Mike Pompeo declared that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from Beijing. This morning China is also reported to have approved the controversial security legislation for HK. Tensions are showing signs they could bubble up even more and potentially boil over – I worry about an embattled U.S. president in this election year facing a national crisis at home and what he may…

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The shape of things to come

Future recovery

Bounce, Recession or Depression? As economists, traders, investors, politicians and media pundits talk of economic recovery, many countries have already entered recession. The latest being Japan, the third largest economy in the world. The UK, Germany, France and Italy have all entered technical recessions. ‘V’ or not to ‘V’ ? The very same ‘analysts’ also spoke of recovery not of recession. The chatter was about the type of recovery even. Whether economies would see a, ‘V’ shaped (a fast bounce bank to normal), a ‘U’ shape, an ‘L’ and a…

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The German economy contracted by 2.2%

Gross Domestic Product

The German economy is reported to have contracted 2.2% in the first quarter 2020, the worst period in 11 years, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The decline was worse than the 2.1% drop expected by economists. GDP from the fourth quarter was revised down to a -0.1% decline from a previous estimate. This data suggest the German economy entered in a technical recession. Other market news U.S. markets closed up Thursday even after job data came in worse than expected. The DOW, for example, climbed form an intra day…

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