The DOW at a jackpot high!
The DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently touched all time highs but where now for the U.S. stock market? Is it time for a breather?
Many analysts suggest there is still room for more gains, especially for the S&P 500 – but I’m not so sure. I feel a 100% gain for the S&P 500 since the March 2020 pandemic drop may indicate it is vey close to a top in this cycle. Job creation, economic data, good company results and massive Fed fiscal intervention and powerful government stimulus all suggest more gains to come but the growth of the delta variant and slow U.S. work uptake may suggest otherwise. We also now have the balance of power change in Afghanistan.
U.S. stock market highs
S&P 500 reached a high of : 4480, the DOW stretched above: 35600 and the Nasdaq enjoyed a high of around: 15100
Current news likely to affect market movement today
Let’s check the headline news out this morning…
- Bloomberg leads with a report suggesting the Taliban have placed checkpoints around Kabul as control moves to Taliban leaders: Afghanistan News: Latest on Kabul Airport, Taliban Takeover, Refugee Crisis – Bloomberg The long term affect of this dramatic change of power in this region will not be fully known for some time. But it is being suggested China, Russia and Iran may exploit the situation. How then, therefore will markets now behave.
- Delta variant – mask risk at Goldman and Morgan Stanley: Goldman Masks, Scrutiny at Morgan Stanley as Delta Spreads – Bloomberg
- China calls for curbs on ‘excessive’ income and for the wealthy to give back more to society – China’s Xi emphasizes ‘common prosperity’ at finance economy meeting (cnbc.com)
- New Zealand was set to be the first advanced economy to hike rates. One Covid case put a stop to it – New Zealand central bank interest rate decision after Covid lockdown (cnbc.com)
- Has Cathie Wood of Ark fund fame got it right? She is reported to have said Michael Burry (The Big Short guy) doesn’t understand innovation space after he bets against ARK fund – he is reported to have taken a short position against her Ark ETF – Cathie Wood says Michael Burry doesn’t understand innovation space after he bets against ARK fund (cnbc.com)
- Facebook, TikTok won’t lift ban on posts that promote Taliban after the fall of Afghanistan – Afghanistan: Taliban content banned on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp (cnbc.com)
- Jim Cramer says investors need to stay nimble as Wall Street reevaluates Covid impact – Cramer: Investors need to stay nimble as Covid impact plays out (cnbc.com)
- Crypto is ‘95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,’ says Fed’s Neel Kashkari – Crypto is ‘95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,’ says Fed’s Neel Kashkari – MarketWatch
- U.S. Stock Market Futures Slip Ahead of the Fed’s July Meeting Minutes Release – U.S. Stock Market Futures Slip Ahead of the Fed’s July Meeting Minutes Release – MarketWatch
- UK job vacancies at record high as wages pick up – UK job vacancies at record high as wages pick up – BBC News
- House prices in the UK fall for first time this year – House prices fall for first time this year – BBC News
By far the main leading story today is of the developing situation in Afghanistan and how this will affect the global political structure and the money markets, now and in the future.
Stock markets moved south on Monday 17th August 2021 but climbed again later and in out of hours trading to reduce initial losses.
FOMC minutes due at: 19:00 BST
I’ve got small ‘tester’ shorts on the DOW, S&P 500, Nasdaq and FTSE 100.
Let’s see where Tuesday’s trading finishes. There is a downward pressure in these indices after some big gains in recent weeks.
I’ll update again on Wednesday…
Bye for now.