Market moving daily news roundup – events & news likely to move markets 19th August 2019
Company performance, economic and political events but especially market sentiment will always influence market movement, good or bad.
Summary
Economic news calendar 19th August 2019 main market moving scheduled events
Japan – trade balance, export & import data due
UK – Rightmove housing data due
EU – consumer price index data due at: 10:00 BST
Note
Items highlighted in red are more likely to move markets, amber and blue less so. Only what I regard as the ‘main’ scheduled events are listed here.
Market moving news roundup, 19th August 2019
News update
Asian markets rise – Japan’s Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’ s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite all advanced Monday. Japan’s exports drop to main trading partner China. Markets generally lifted by Chinese government stimulus.
Apple’s CEO talks to Trump about tariffs, he’s not happy. Discussion ‘a plenty’ again about U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut speculation – all eyes on Jackson Hole meeting and Fed speech this week (Friday 23rd August 2019). Much is being made by the media of the role the Fed has to play again.
Central bank stimulus
Has the artificial stimulus over the years gone too far? Has it lulled the investor into a false sense of security with easy money? How much global debt is there now?
Do we feel that whatever happens in the world economy central banks will always ‘prop’ up the system and never let it fail? Has there been far to much risk taking in the markets? Will the Fed follow on with a second rate cut in as many months?
Do markets rely on central banks coming to the rescue? And remember, only a few months ago, we were facing the possibility of rate RISES this year, not rate cuts! Pressure’s on Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
No recession?
U.S. President Donald Trump says, ‘I don’t think we are having a recession, we are doing tremendously well’. Our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut and they are loaded up with money.’ That’s all there is to it then, all is good – no recession likely, Trump says so. Is Trump’s criticism of the Fed becoming too toxic? The U.S. – China tariff trade war continues to dominate global market concerns. But markets love a rate cut.
World photography day
Just in case you didn’t know, it’s world photography day today!
Gold falls below $1,500
Gold is down Monday, as stock markets move up and investors appear to embrace more risk again. Most markets are quieter in August, this often leads to more price swings than usual.
Gold as an investment is a curious one. It is seen as a protection against inflation, but in many developed economies inflation is rare. Gold produces no income like property, shares and bonds might.
It is perceived as a safe haven for investors during jittery market periods, as we witnessed last week when yield curves inverted. Has ‘calm’ retuned to the markets, for the time being?
FTSE 100 is trading up. U.S. stock futures are up too (Monday, 19th August at: 11:45 BST). Sterling falls against the dollar and euro. Shares in Ocado are up, helping the FTSE 100 climb.
U.S. extends delay to ban Huawei by a further 90 days.
EU inflation update
EU inflation slowed to 1% in July, statistics from Eurostat agency show. The figure is below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%.
Germany heading for recession?
The Bundesbank has said that, ‘overall economic performance could again decline. A report suggests that a drop in German industrial production during the summer may push Germany into a recession, according to the country’s central bank.
Statistics released last week showed the economy shrank by 0.1% between April and June. Will GDP shrink again in the third quarter, and push Europe’s largest economy into recession?
U.K. – Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to hold meetings with his German and French counterparts this week.
U.S. – Dow stocks rise ahead of open. Dow futures up 250+ points on Monday, 19th August at 13:30 BST.
U.S. – Dow opens 300 points up as Wall Street continues rebound. S&P 500 and Nasdaq also up at open.
UK – National Farmers Union (NFU) says wheat harvest suffered as rainfall making it difficult to complete harvests.
U.S. – stocks rallied Monday 19th August 2019, lifted by comments from President Trump and other officials on trade talks. China, over the weekend, lowered borrowing costs for companies.
Germany – reports that Germany may also be considering stimulus measures encouraged European stocks to climb further too.
UK – pub group Green King has agreed a deal with CKA, a Hong Kong real estate company.
UK – government says that allowing EU nationals to live and work freely in the UK will end in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Argentina – doubt cast over whether IMF loan can be repaid by opposition canidate? Last week conservative Argentine President Mauricio Macri suffered a resounding defeat to Alberto Fernández in a primary poll. Argentina’s bonds and stocks went into freefall and the peso fell against the U.S. dollar.
Stock market indices update, August 19th 2019
Closing positions of: FTSE 100, DAX, DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NIKKEI & GOLD
I trade these indices.
Global stock markets continue recover some of the weeks loses. Dow gains around 200pts on the day. S&P 500 & NASDAQ also up.
FTSE 100 – closed up at: 7189
DAX – closed down at: 11715
DOW – closed up at: 26135
S&P 500 – closed up at: 2923
NASDAQ – closed up at: 8003
NIKKEI – closed up at: 20563
GOLD – closed at around: $1,498
Key: Green highlight markets move up. Red highlight markets move down.
All values rounded.